Brews & Views Bulletin Board Service: Presidential Election

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Bill Pierce
Moderator
Username: Billpierce

Post Number: 992
Registered: 01-2002

Posted on Tuesday, November 02, 2004 - 09:43 pm:

I've been very carefully following the election polls as it comes down to the wire. As of 4 PM EST on election day, the two sites I watch most closely are predicting an extremely close election.

http://www.electoral-vote.com is run by an expatriate American political science professor at a Dutch university. It currently gives Kerry 262 electoral votes and Bush 261, with one state (New Jersey) and 15 electoral votes an exact tie. With 270 votes needed to win, it can't get any closer than that.

The 2004 US Presidential Winner Takes All Market at the University of Iowa (http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/data_Pres04_WTA.html) tracks futures contracts in the popular vote. Currently the contract that Kerry will win the popular vote with less than 52 percent of the total is leading the possibility that Bush will do the same by $0.368 to $0.306. (The corresponding contract that Kerry will win with 52 percent or more is $0.278 versus $0.113 that Bush will do the same.)

The Iowa Electronic Markets Winner Takes All Market has correctly reflected the results of every US presidential election since its inception in 1988, including the 2000 election in which Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote.

(Message edited by BillPierce on November 02, 2004)

Kent Fletcher
Advanced Member
Username: Fletch

Post Number: 583
Registered: 11-2002

Posted on Tuesday, November 02, 2004 - 10:11 pm:

I voted at noon (PST) today, casting a vote for our President in a state which he has zero chance of winning. But I believe that even in California it will be closer than some people think. Not only is Kerry far too liberal for mainstream America, there is a clear pattern on disdain for Senators running for President. In over 100 years, only one Senator has been elected president (without first serving as VP). That was Kennedy. And Kerry is no Jack Kennedy. In fact, Kennedy (by his actions as President) would probably be considered conservative today.